Cooper Kupp is being drafted too high, Amari Cooper is going too low, and more ADP fails

May 29, 2024

Cooper Kupp is a great wide receiver. His 2021 campaign was an all-time great fantasy season. He was selected to the Pro Bowl and he was also voted first team All Pro. The Rams rode him and a stellar defense to a Super Bowl championship. Today, 2021 seems so far behind us. Is he still one of the best in the game? Was he one of the best in fantasy before that season? There’s reason to believe that he’s being drafted too high this season.

Kupp is currently being drafted as the fifth overall player and third receiver in most fantasy formats. When the season is over, he could very well prove those fantasy managers right, but there are several reasons to be skeptical about his ability to return to his 2021 form in 2023. His six seasons have only produced two elite-level full season fantasy performances. In 2021, he was the top receiver in fantasy. In 2019, he finished fourth. In each of the other four seasons, he finished 22nd or worse. In half-PPR formats, he’s had two seasons where he averaged 18 or more points per game, and two more where he reached the 14-point mark. He also had two seasons where he finished below 11 points. Overall, that is not an elite level fantasy career.

We talk about usage with running backs all the time but we never talk about it with receivers. Kupp’s usage has been extremely high dating back to college. He’s been hit a ton, he’s ran a ton routes, and he’s made countless blocks. That is a lot of wear and tear on the body and Kupp is definitely showing it. He’s only made 66 starts out of a possible 98 games during his NFL tenure. He has suffered concussions, groin pulls, hamstring strains, knee and ankle injuries over the course of his six seasons in the NFL. If 26 is the magic number for running backs, then 30 is probably that line of diminishing returns for receivers. Kupp is 30! He is not the only one who is older. His quarterback Matthew Stafford is 35 years old and is also coming off an injury-plagued season where he did not play particularly well.

Schematically, Kupp’s greatest physical attribute is his agility. He is not a burner, but his ability to run routes and move fluidly in and out of breaks make him near impossible to guard in the slot. How much has he been diminished from the number of past injuries and last season’s high ankle sprain? Defensive players will likely make Kupp prove that he can be just as explosive in those intermediate routes that used to leave defenders in the dust. Football is a game of inches and if they are able to gain a few inches back on Kupp it could be the difference between what used to be a completion and what is now a pass breakup. Look for nickel backs to sit on Kupp’s short and intermediate routes, possibly take away one direction and force him to prove that he can explode out of that break and create separation. If he can’t, then his production will definitely dip as a result.

Kupp does not appear to be as can’t-miss as his draft position would indicate. He is not alone. Here are a few other players who are being drafted higher or lower than they probably should.

Too High

Breece Hall, RB, NYJ

Yes, Hall had Jets fans excited about his promise, and yes, he showed he can be an explosive, home-run hitter in the NFL. When you pair him in the backfield with Aaron Rodgers, it generates excitement. But the fact remains that he is coming off a major knee injury and we can never predict how a player will recover from that. He is being drafted 30th overall, and the third round seems high to add a running back with such a large question mark. It definitely becomes strange when he’s going ahead of options like Travis Etienne, Ken Walker, Dameon Pierce and a few other healthy productive backs out there .

Too Low

Derrick Henry, RB, TEN

If you want to know just how good Henry has been in fantasy, look no further than 2021. That year, he only played in eight games and still finished as RB14. Last season he returned to Top 5 running back form and he also added pass receiving to his game, hauling in a career-best 33 receptions for 398 yards. Now a full season removed from the knee injury that kept him out for half of the ’21 season, he has an argument to be RB1, but he is being drafted RB8 — disrespectful! Many fantasy experts have seemingly been waiting for Henry’s downfall since he is one of the production outliers for a RB of his age and high mileage. They will be disappointed once again in 2023.

Amari Cooper, WR, CLE

Last season, Cooper finished WR8 in one of the more run-heavy, conservative offenses in the NFL. He also dealt with a quarterback change and had to adapt to two different styles of play. In 2023, he is back for a second season in the same offense, he has built rapport with his quarterback, and he is being drafted as WR18. Cooper is still one of the most prolific route runners in the game and the unquestioned WR1 on the Browns. So the fact that he is being drafted after guys who are the WR2 on their teams or who have not played is crazy. He’s 29-years old and still seems to have plenty of juice in his legs. Look for him to get an abundance of targets from DeShaun Watson, who will be on a mission to regain his status as one of the best young quarterbacks in this game.

(Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports)

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