Tigers Talk: Spencer Torkelson and the biggest takeaways from spring so far

May 27, 2024

LAKELAND, Fla. — Spencer Torkelson ripped a line drive that banged off the left-field wall Saturday when the Tigers played the Braves at CoolToday Park. It became a long single, and Statcast data was not available, so we don’t know exactly how hard the ball was hit.

But based on the eye test, it was a great result for Torkelson. His spring is a case study for the varying stories you can get from the eye test, traditional stats and advanced metrics.

For instance: Torkelson is batting .200 this spring. He has yet to hit a home run. Anecdotally, though, he seems to be posting good at-bats. He has connected with several balls that have turned into lineouts or deep flyouts.

All the underlying data suggests Torkelson is doing good things. He just hasn’t been rewarded. Based on games where Statcast was available, Torkelson has hit nine balls with an exit velocity of at least 101 mph. Anything above 95 mph is considered “hard-hit.” Yet six of those hard-hit balls have turned into outs, enough to leave some wondering if Torkelson is headed for a repeat of his rookie-year struggles. Look beyond the box score, and there’s reason to feel more encouraged.

Still, let’s recall the immortal words of Dusty Baker: “We’re not looking for some exit speed. We’re looking for some exit hits.” It’s foolish to put too much stake into anything that happens in small spring training samples, but if you combine each of the past three springs and Torkelson’s rookie season, the sample is not so small. He has batted only .196 in 443 at-bats.

For those who can’t help but obsess over the details in exhibition games, Baseball Savant gives us an in-depth look at every ball Torkelson has put in play this spring. It’s yet to show up in the box score, but Torkelson is finally showing some great signs.

That's what we like to see! #TigersWin pic.twitter.com/S2gqsyXJwv

— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) March 11, 2023

A few more notes from spring training …

My biggest takeaway

There’s a lot of uncertainty. Some of the topics are already coming into clearer focus as camp progresses. But the early days of spring training were all about getting looks at new players. That meant trade acquisitions like Nick Maton and Matt Vierling. That meant non-roster guys like Andy Ibáñez and Trey Wingenter. That meant emerging prospects like Andre Lipcius and Brendan White.

In a way, that has made this camp interesting. There’s a lot of competition. César Hernández has done a lot of nice things in camp, but is there a clear role for him on the Tigers’ roster? What about Tyler Nevin, who is now battling an oblique injury? Might it be a mistake to write off Ryan Kreidler with plenty of camp still to go?

In a way, all the questions are a referendum on the state of the Tigers. There’s still so much to sort out.

So far, though, things have been encouraging. Players like Maton, Lipcius, Parker Meadows and Jake Rogers have gotten off to great starts. Under-the-radar guys like Miguel Diaz are getting chances to show off what they can do. Diaz, a right-handed pitcher who is great against left-handed batters, has put himself firmly in the conversation for a bullpen job.

But it’s still highly difficult to know what this roster will look like in a couple of weeks. Any way you slice it, chances are it’s drastically different by the end of the season.

Biggest surprise

Spencer Turnbull has looked so good. Don’t get me wrong: I’ve been saying all offseason Turnbull is still a very valuable pitcher and could be the best on staff even after Tommy John surgery. But I did expect Turnbull to ease in after missing a full year. He’s always been a guy with wicked stuff. I figured that might mean he would need time to harness his command. You never really know what to make of velocity in spring training, but it’s encouraging to see Turnbull’s fastball playing in the mid-90s just like it was pre-surgery. The fastball averaged 94.1 mph in his latest start.

Turnbull’s first two-plus innings Friday against the Yankees were pure filth: He retired his first seven batters, recording three strikeouts and landing his slider as well as ever. But with one out in the third, Turnbull ran into trouble and his pitch count elevated. He left the game after allowing one run, one hit and one walk. He threw 45 pitches. But we still got a glimpse at just how good Turnbull can be.

What I’m looking forward to

Seeing where things go with Maton. He has done nothing but impress this spring. He’s hitting .304 with three homers. He brings a great vibe to the team. He’s been knocking balls out of the park, and his defense looks tremendous anywhere you put him on the infield.

When the Tigers’ trade with the Phillies went down this winter, I found Vierling to be the most interesting player coming to Detroit. Vierling, though he’s temporarily out with a knee strain, has still been plenty interesting and looked good this spring, too. But Maton looks like he might have been underrated in Philadelphia. I’m not sure exactly what type of numbers to expect from him throughout the course of 162, but he looks like a real positive addition to the Tigers.

What I’m skeptical of

The Tigers’ power surge. It’s wild to see Detroit atop the league in spring training home runs. The Tigers have hit 29 homers in 16 spring games. That’s the most of any team in the league.

The 2022 Tigers had only 110 homers in 162 regular-season games, the fewest in the majors. Bopping homers in the spring beats the alternative, but I’m slow to think this exhibition power is a real sign the Tigers will have a more potent lineup in 2023. The best-case scenario is all this talk from A.J. Hinch and Scott Harris about controlling the strike zone pays off and the Tigers can form a scrappy, tough lineup with power from Javier Báez and Jonathan Schoop mixed in between a lot of tough at-bats from others.

But there aren’t many players on this team who profile as real sluggers.

An interesting nugget

Baseball Savant has a new tool that measures catcher blocking, and it contains a wealth of information.

The two things that stand out the most regarding the Tigers: Eric Haase did not do well blocking last season. And Alex Lange is one of the toughest pitchers in the game to catch.

Haase ranked 64th among qualifying catchers last season with minus-11 blocks above average. Essentially, a league-average catcher would be expected to have 11 fewer passed balls or wild pitches. The Tigers have worked with Haase this spring on setting up a bit closer to the plate to improve his pitch framing. More emphasis on framing is generally taken to come with the tradeoff of less emphasis on blocking. But fair to wonder if Haase’s setup might benefit his blocking, too. It seems like he had a tough time handling errant pitches when they got too deep.

On Lange, data reveals he threw the lowest percentage of “easy” pitches in the league at 86.7 percent, which makes sense given the high whiff rate on Lange’s curveball. He was throwing a lot of balls outside the zone and getting hitters to chase. But that means blocking those pitches can become a tough chore for the man behind the plate.

That’s not necessarily bad news, though. Only one other pitcher contributed to a lower rate of blocks on average from his catchers: Shohei Ohtani.

What’s been the most fun

Nothing beats shooting the breeze with Jim Leyland in spring training. Leyland is around a lot each spring and he’s always down for some old-school chatting with the writers. Leyland’s jokes and quirks can be hilarious. It also takes only a few minutes with him in the clubhouse or outside the dugout to realize why he was such a beloved manager. His insights into the game and his knack for connecting with people are unrivaled. He sees the world in his own way and has real psychological genius to him.

(Photo: Mike Watters / USA Today)

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